Interesting brief synopsis

[tor lives]

I found this quiet interesting
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPKivVfwQ24
TOR

[Adam the Akrodude]

Interesting for sure. We are entering quite a challenging time I think. Whilst I still doubt there will ever be a major war between China, USA or Russia (outside of some rogue event happening), Australia is struggling to keep it's nose above water from a trade and manufacturing perspective. Over the last 30+ years of my career, I've watched in frustration many factories shut up shop here and move offshore. Many large industrial plants have not moved with the times and put money back into their business and upgraded - great example of this is Onesteel in Whyalla. Australia went through quite a expansion in industry during the 60's & 70's. Not much has happened since then from a manufacturing perspective. Of course the mining boom kicked in and rapidly overtook manufacturing, which has been slowly dying since then. There are of course exceptions to the rule and this country can and does do some very clever things - CSL Behring, Cochlear are but two examples of this.

Relying wholly and solely on mining to a large extent has made this country pretty vulnerable to global resource ups and downs. Our dollar goes up and down in accordance to resource prices - if no one wants our "dirt", the dollar drops. Our steel industry which really must be considered a strategic asset to this country is in dire threat now. China gearing up to keep up with it's insane level of growth built up it's steel industry to epic proportions. Now that growth has slowed in China, it is dumping cheap steel across the world resulting in many western steel mills closing and mothballed. This to me is economic warfare - there ain't no bullets flying, but consequences of these actions has resulted in effecting many thousands of lives across the globe, including those in China which is now having to close and wind down its steel production. Graph below gives an idea of Chinese steel production relative to other steel producing nations.



China is desperate for resources now - I think it has just outstripped USA in this regard. China has secured resources in Sth America, Africa and across S.E Asia and of course Australia and elsewhere. Not saying this is a bad thing at all, but it does show just how vulnerable China now is. USA on the other hand is pretty well self-reliant on oil & gas - quite amazing really given its consumption. As mentioned, 80% of China's oil comes through the Indian Ocean. This is why China is wanting to build up 3 carrier battle groups over the next 20 or so years and built these artificial island bases in the Sth China Sea. India is wanting to do likewise. By cutting off the sea lanes to China, China literally starves. Look how much rice China now imports - I'm not even sure if China is able to feed itself anymore given this.



So, all that is going on sure does highlight the need for a very strong ADF. Not since WW2 is the ADF so experienced and well equipped I think. The F-35 is coming for the RAAF and 12 new subs for the RAN. It is these two defence assets I think are the most important and vital for the defence of this country. Australian forces now have global reach - without the need for support from any ally. Whilst any major stoush in this region is unlikely, it is possible. Terrorism will be a major challenge. It is likely things will get worse again over in the "Great Sandpit". China knows full well that war is bad for business. The only ones that profit are the weapons builders. China is hugely vulnerable to having its sea lanes cut off, so any more than a bit of posturing is suicide. Whilst China's forces are indeed large, on average they are quite behind in technology. With 3000+ F-35s coming, 100 or so B-21s, etc, etc China and Russia simply cannot compete. The US defence budget is 3 times greater than China and 12 times that of Russia. These new stealth weapon systems are war stoppers (including the host of precision stand off weapons), as there is little way of stopping these systems doing their job once put into action.

I think the hope in China now is to build up its domestic economy and not be so reliant on exports. Everyone will want their second car over there,big TV, air-con plus all the latest mod-cons. The potential for building the middle-class in China is enormous. So, hopefully everyone over there wanting more "stuff" will help balance things out. Here, we've got to make this a smarter country - we are going backwards by becoming so reliant of resources and agriculture as the country's major incomes. Here ends my rant for the week!